The week opened with a noticeable downward correction on the European carbon market in line with gas and coal markets. At the end of the session, the EUAs closed at €79,36, posting a daily loss of €2,31, the biggest in six weeks.
According to a report published by ING last week, the European carbon prices are expected to average €75 this year. In an article released last December, ING predicted an average price of €74 for 2025.
A new study released by think tank Ember revealed that fossil share in the EU power sector declined from 39% in 2019 to just 29% last year, which is a historic low. In the same interval, renewables have risen from 34% to a record 47%.
The European carbon market traded bearishly on Tuesday morning, reaching an intra-day low of €77,90 only to change direction in the afternoon to close the day at €80,27, the highest settlement since December 2023.
On Monday, after an initial bearish opening to the day, the European carbon market changed direction in the afternoon, tracking similar moves on the gas markets. The EUAs closed the session with a 0.9% daily gain, ending in the green for eight sessions in a row.
The European carbon price traded comfortably above €80 on Friday, before settling at €79.26 by the close, a level last seen in May 2024. Carbon also managed to extend its rally for a seventh consecutive session, posting an impressive 5,6% weekly gain.
The price on the European carbon market could reach an average of €92 this year, according to the Norwegian consultancy firm Veyt. While this latest forecast is €3 lower than the previous one made in October by Veyt, it is more optimistic than projections by other analysts surveyed by Montel News in December.
France’s nuclear fleet was producing 55,2 gigawatts of electricity on Thursday morning, according to data from grid operator RTE. This is the highest output since February 2019 suggesting a strong recovery following an extended period of disruption mainly caused by extended maintenance.
On Wednesday morning, the European carbon market continued its upward move, trading comfortably above €78, a level last seen in March 2024. Today’s trend is in line with gas, with the TTF front month also trading higher. The carbon market also reacted to the latest trading report published by the ICE platform.
European carbon prices began the trade on a positive note on Monday, continuing the upward trend that started at the end of last week. The EUA Dec’25 contracts were climbing over the €76 mark in early trade, in tandem with gas and oil markets.