An otherwise bearish period on the European carbon market was interrupted in Thursday’s session, where prices instead started to increase in the afternoon, decoupling briefly from both the gas and coal markets.
The most recent Commitment of Traders (CoT) report published by the ICE platform revealed that investment funds have expanded their net long positions (long term-short term) to 19,6 million allowances from 4,5 million allowances in the previous week.
According to Eurelectric, the association that represents the European electricity industry, last year, “the EU achieved the cleanest power generation mix ever,” with emissions from the sector dropping 13% compared to 2023.
Last Friday, the European Commission published the status table on free allocation to industry and heat production for 2024. According to the document, as of 12 December 2024, Member States have distributed nearly 90% of the total amount of allocation for this year, making little progress over the past two weeks.
European carbon prices continue to fall in early Monday morning trading, the last day of trading for the EUA Dec’24 futures contract. Also, today is the last auction of the year due to the holiday break during the Christmas and New Year period, normally a bullish market signal.
The European carbon market fell along with gas on Thursday, dropping at one time to as low as €65,54 and closing the session at €66,10, a level last seen a month ago. Also notable is the daily loss of €2,53, the largest since April.
Dutch bank ING expects the price of carbon allowances in the EU ETS to increase constantly throughout 2025. In its latest forecast, the bank predicts EUAs to average around €74 next year, rising towards the end and reaching values around €78.
The analysis of Ember’s dataset of monthly electricity generation in the EU, reveals that the carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels reached 462,23 MtCO2 so far this year, a 12% decline compared to the same time last year.
The European carbon market saw a short downtrend in early trading on Friday dropping briefly below €67,50 for the first time in three weeks. However, the EUAs recovered later in the day and ended up closing with 1,4% daily increase, “reclaiming nearly all of the value it had lost during the week” , noted Carbon […]
The most recent Commitment of Traders (CoT) report published by the ICE platform revealed that investment funds have expanded their net long positions (long term-short term) to 11,8 million allowances from nearly 9 million allowances in the previous week. This means that investors continue to believe that carbon prices will increase.