Dutch bank ING expects the price of carbon allowances in the EU ETS to increase constantly throughout 2025. In its latest forecast, the bank predicts EUAs to average around €74 next year, rising towards the end and reaching values around €78.

Compared to current levels, “we see prices trending higher next year, though the move is likely to be more modest than initially expected.” According to ING, the upward trend should be supported by the gradual phasing out of free allowances for the aviation sector (50% reduction in 2025 followed by 100% in 2026) and gradual phasing in of shipping sector emissions (from covering only 40% in 2024 to 70% in 2025).

Furthemore, “the market preparing itself for the start of the removal of free allowances for Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) sectors from 2026” could also offer support to the carbon prices next year. 

However, the bank noted that “there are demand risks” due to weak industrial production and strong renewables output, “while supply will remain strong with auction volumes brought forward for REPowerEU.” Furthermore, ING warns that “there is the potential for an escalation in trade tensions next year.”

The most recent estimates from ING are rather in line with earlier predictions from Reuters and Bloomberg. Analysts surveyed by Reuters in October, placed EUAs at around €76,88 for 2025. In BNEF’s latest price forecast from 7 October, EUAs are seen at €71 and could “keep climbing over the coming years but the ascent will be slowed by persistent low emissions and abundant permit supply.”