European carbon prices began the trade on a positive note on Monday, continuing the upward trend that started at the end of last week. The EUA Dec’25 contracts  were climbing over the €76 mark in early trade, in tandem with gas and oil markets.

Brent oil has surged more than 6% in the last three sessions, reaching a four-month high on Monday morning following severe sanctions imposed on the Russian oil industry by the US Treasury. 

According to the press release published on Friday , the sanctions targets “Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, more than 180 vessels, and dozens of oil traders, oilfield service providers, insurance companies, and energy officials.” Based on estimates by Goldman Sach, the new measures will severely hurt Russia as the vessels transported 25% of Russia’s exports. 

However, Russia could “once again be able to take action to minimise the impact of these latest sanctions,” said ING analysts, adding that “it is not clear whether the incoming Trump administration in the US will keep these sanctions in place.”

Furthermore, according to Citi analyst Anthony Yuen, the new administration in Washington could also change the gas market outlook. “Our view is that flow should eventually resume,” wrote Yuen in a note referring to the Russian gas exports via Ukraine that ended this year after Ukraine refused to renew the five-year transit deal. 

Source: Gas Infrastructure Europe

Meanwhile, colder winter conditions compared to previous years and the cessation of Russian flows have put pressure on gas inventories levels. According to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe , as of 11 January, EU’s storage sites were filled to just 66,38% of capacity, compared to 80,80% a year ago.