According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), natural gas consumption in European OECD countries rose by nearly 9% during the first quarter of 2025, driven by colder weather and lower renewable power generation.
According to a new market forecast from the Dow Jones OPIS analysis team, widely recognized for its energy and carbon market insights, EUA prices are projected to average around €207 by 2034, when free allowances will be fully phased out and the CBAM fully implemented.
As of 24 October, investment funds’ net long positions eased modestly, according to the latest ICE Commitment of Traders report. The data indicate that speculative investors have begun to scale back their bullish exposure to carbon prices, marking the first decline in long positioning this month.
The European carbon market fell behind energy markets on Thursday, slipping to a one-week low despite a sharp rally in oil and gas prices following new sanctions on Russia from both the US and the EU.
Nearly 80 industrial companies “across all sizes and sectors,” representing around half a million employees in Europe, are lobbying for an extension of free allocation under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) beyond the current phase-out date, amid the gradual implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
According to the latest Commitment of Traders report just released by ICE, investment funds participating in the European carbon market raised their net long positions to 94.7 million allowances in the week ending October 17, marking a 4.3% increase compared with the previous week.
European carbon prices recovered from early losses last week but failed to climb back above the €80 mark seen the week before. The EUAs consolidated during the latter half of the week, hitting a high of €79.90 on Friday before closing at €79.46, nearly unchanged from the previous Friday.
German media report that industry representatives from the EU’s largest economy want free allocation to continue beyond 2034, when it is scheduled to end under the new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.
According to the latest Commitment of Traders (CoT) report published this morning by the ICE platform, investment funds increased their net long holdings to 90.8 million allowances, up from 85.7 million in the previous week, confirming speculative optimism.
The European carbon market extended its bullish streak on Friday, with the EUA Dec25 briefly reaching €80.37, its highest level since 13 February. Despite losing some momentum later in the session, carbon still managed to post a modest weekly gain of 0.65%, settling at €79.68.