According to the latest Commitment of Traders report just released by ICE, investment funds participating in the European carbon market raised their net long positions to 94.7 million allowances in the week ending October 17, marking a 4.3% increase compared with the previous week.

The data show that, as of last Friday, speculators increased their long holdings in EUAs from 119.7 million to 122.9 million allowances. During the same period, they slightly trim their short positions from 28.8 million to 28.2 million allowances.

The net long position has been steadily rising over the past two months—aside from a brief dip in the week ending September 26—and is now nearing its peak from May 2021, when it temporarily exceeded 100 million allowances.

Traders anticipate a tighter market next year and perceive potential upside risks. Nevertheless, despite strong capital inflows, the EUA Dec ’25 contract was unable to break above €80 as it had the week before, ending last Friday 0.27% lower week-on-week.

“This is a market which is super long. How much more capital can we throw at this market?” he asked. “We’ve run out of bullets and we haven’t even got to €80,” noticed Trevor Sikorski of Energy Aspects, at last week’s Carbon Forward. 

However, the latest Commitment of Traders  report contradicts Sikorski, showing that speculators still have bullets left to fire — as evidenced by the increase in their net long holdings over the past week.