European carbon prices recovered from early losses last week but failed to climb back above the €80 mark seen the week before. The EUAs consolidated during the latter half of the week, hitting a high of €79.90 on Friday before closing at €79.46, nearly unchanged from the previous Friday.

Also noteworthy, the weekly turnover jumped to 150 million allowances, marking the second-highest level since late June and standing well above this year’s average of around 138 million allowances. The increase indicates stronger market activity compared to the previous week, when turnover totaled around 135 million allowances.

Monday morning, the EUAs opened the week on a weaker note with weather forecasts supporting what it appears to be a minor correction. “Next week offers milder and windier weather in Northern Europe, and there is no real cold spell in sight so far”, according to Mind Energy this morning. 

Carbon prices are currently moving out of sync with the broader energy complex—especially gas, with which EUAs have traditionally maintained a strong correlation. This divergence is partly fueled by speculative funds building substantial net long positions in anticipation of tighter market conditions from 2026 onward with traders already viewing EUAs as “the hot commodity of 2026,” according to Carbon Pulse.

However, while investors’ holdings reached their highest since May 2021, carbon price failed to match the pace.   “Macro headwinds and policy uncertainty continue to dampen proactive hedging,” writes BBVA analysts this morning adding that “soft growth data, tariff headlines, and evolving policy rhetoric are adding a layer of caution.”