According to a new market forecast from the Dow Jones OPIS analysis team, widely recognized for its energy and carbon market insights, EUA prices are projected to average around €207 by 2034, when free allowances will be fully phased out and the CBAM fully implemented.

The new mechanism is poised to hit Europe’s chemical industry hard, with its heavy energy use leaving producers exposed to rising carbon costs. OPIS estimates that chemical firms “are staring down a potential multibillion-euro carbon liability.”

By 2034, OPIS projects the industry’s annual compliance burden could reach about €6.5 billion if EUA prices evolve as forecast. The firm also cautions that “the phaseout of free allowances and rising carbon costs may prove to be another nail in the coffin for Europe’s chemical producers.”

In 2024, the 30 largest chemical installations in the EU received approximately 26.6 million free allowances, while their combined emissions totaled 31.4 million metric tons of CO₂. Furthermore, five installations actually received more allowances than they emitted, with BASF leading the way — holding a surplus of more than half a million EUAs.

Conversely, a report by Oxford Economics indicates that Europe’s chemical sector is experiencing a sharp downturn, driven primarily by elevated energy and carbon costs that are undermining its global competitiveness.

The study notes that “from 2019 to Q2 2025, chemical output dropped 30% in the UK, 18% in Germany, 12% in France, and 7% in Belgium,” warning that policymakers must “act decisively to protect this strategic industry or risk irreversible decline.”