Alina TEODORESCU

Alina TEODORESCU

EU carbon market analyst

European carbon market experiences turbulence as trade tensions return to focus

Limited gas supply from Norway adds bullish pressure on EUAs

26 May 2025

The European carbon market fell for the third consecutive session on Friday, with EUA Dec’25 briefly touching €70.00 before settling at €71.56. Nevertheless, it still notched a 0.8% gain for the week, marking its seventh straight weekly increase.

Carbon prices dropped sharply after President Trump threatened to introduce 50% tariffs on the EU starting June 1. European equities also took a hit, with the Eurostoxx50 index falling as much as 3%. However, markets began to rebound later in the session as investors grew skeptical about the likelihood of the tariffs actually being implemented.

“We are seeing markets start to moderate the levels of volatility in response to Trump’s opening trade gambit with each new country or region,” a market analyst said on Friday, quoted by Bloomberg.

It took just “a very nice call” with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for President Trump to announce on Sunday evening that he would extend the deadline to June 9, as requested by the EU official.

Markets changed direction on Monday morning, with EUA Dec’25 recording impressive gains in early trading. However, the upward trend is being driven primarily by rising gas prices, rather than Trump playing with tariffs.

An unplanned outage at Norway’s giant Troll field this morning, due to a compressor failure, further reduced gas flows to Europe. According to Gassco, the country’s gas grid operator, gas production will be cut by an additional 34.6 mcm/day until May 30, on top of a separate unplanned outage of 16.2 mcm/day that will end on Saturday.