The European carbon market extended its upward momentum in early Friday trading, after the EUA Dec ’25 contract settled at €77.43 on Thursday, the highest close in two weeks. This morning, carbon briefly reached €79.27, a level last seen on February 17.

October has also brought an unusual surge in trading activity despite the post-compliance period. In just the first two sessions of the month, allowance volumes have already well exceeded this year’s daily average of 28 million EUAs.

A similar pattern is unfolding in the British carbon market, where UKA Dec ’25 rose this morning to its highest level in more than two weeks, following a 3.5% jump in yesterday’s session, the largest daily gain since mid-July.

In this context, the main factor driving bullish sentiment across both carbon markets could be media reporting on “a temporary exemption from the EU tax until the UK and EU align their carbon emission schemes,” as stated by The Guardian.

By contrast, European gas markets have seen little movement, with prices holding steady as the divergence between TTF and EUAs continues to widen. “There are no other major events right now able to cause drama on a market,” wrote Mind Energy yesterday, referring to gas prices.