Ahead of the Trump-Putin summit and following sharp declines in energy-related markets, the European carbon market also moved lower, though at a more moderate pace. On Friday, EUA Dec’25 closed at €70.68, its lowest in three weeks, recording a daily drop of €0.28 and a weekly decline of 3.46%.

The European gas market recorded sharp losses, driven by speculation over a potential peace deal and rising expectations of a gradual easing of sanctions on Russia. The TTF front-month contract ended at €31.03, its lowest since April 2024, while coal and oil prices both settled at nearly two-month lows.

The drop in carbon prices last Friday was further reinforced by forecasts of milder temperatures and stronger wind power generation. In addition, Ulrich Weber, an LSEG analyst cited by Energy News, noted that “French nuclear power capability, which had been reduced by cooling water issues, is expected to recover next Monday,” adding further bearish pressure.

Early Monday morning, ahead of the Trump-Zelensky meeting, as gas prices were reaching this year’s low, the EUA Dec’25 had a weak start to the week as well. “But the situation remains very uncertain and at this stage, there’s no sign the Alaska summit will materially change Europe’s gas supply picture,” Bloomberg reported this morning.

In the afternoon, EUAs reversed the downward trend, tracking similar moves in gas prices, and held comfortably above the psychological level of €70. “The market experiences strong technical support at €70/t, which has been a threshold for quite some time now,” noted Mind Energy.