In Carbon Pulse’s latest quarterly survey, analysts have raised their EU carbon price forecasts for the remainder of the decade, citing structural market tightening as a key driver.

Poland’s KOBiZE/CAKE, one of the institutions polled and known for its reliable projections, expects EU Allowance (EUA) prices to average €75 in the third quarter of 2025—up from approximately €68 in the same period last year. Prices are projected to rise further, reaching an average of €80 in the fourth quarter.

This outlook is supported by several factors, including “deadline pressure, geopolitical catalysts, structural tightening, and seasonality,” with EUAs historically performing strongly in August, November, and December. Additionally, potential support may come from a “possible loosening of monetary policy by the European Central Bank, as well as emerging defence initiatives like the EU ReArm programme,” which could influence industrial activity and emissions levels.

Energy Aspects offers a more cautious perspective. “The EUA market has settled into a [€70–75/t] range over the past two months and seems comfortable within it,” said Ben Lee, senior carbon analyst at the firm, as quoted by Montel News. He noted that prices are unlikely to “deviate significantly” from this range during the July–September period.

According to Quantum Commodity Intelligence, LSEG has also increased its forecasts for EUAs which is now estimated “expected to average at €71.75/tCO2e during the October-December period for this year, up €0.75, which would place the 2025 average at €73.50. ”

Looking further ahead, KOBiZE/CAKE has revised its longer-term forecast downward. While Polish analysts previously expected EUAs to reach €200, the latest projection has been lowered to €145.