U.S. President Donald Trump returned to focus on Friday with new tariff threats, causing declines across commodity and financial markets. His latest move was to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, effective June 4.
According to the weekly Commitment of Traders (CoT) report published by ICE, investment funds increased their net long positions in EUAs to 17.8 million allowances as of last Friday—up nearly 6% from the previous week.
The European Commission announced on Wednesday its annual estimate of the Total Number of Allowances in Circulation (TNAC) for 2024, a key indicator for determining the volume of EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) allowances to be placed in the Market Stability Reserve (MSR).
The European Commission’s assessment of National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) shows that Member States are on track to reduce net emissions by 54% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels. However, the Commission emphasized that reaching this milestone depends on the full implementation of both national and EU-level measures.
A bullish turn in the European carbon market on Monday came as no surprise following news that President Trump had once again reversed course on tariff threats, postponing them until July 9.
The European carbon market fell for the third consecutive session on Friday, with EUA Dec’25 briefly touching €70.00 before settling at €71.56. Nevertheless, it still notched a 0.8% gain for the week, marking its seventh straight weekly increase.
Macquarie Group, an Australia-based global financial services company, expects the carbon price in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) to reach €100 next year and rise further to €127 by 2028, driven by a tightening supply outlook.
Investment funds continued to expand their net long positions in both the EU and UK carbon markets during the week ending Friday, 16 May, according to data from ICE’s Commitment of Traders report.
On Tuesday, the European carbon market rebounded strongly, recovering most of the losses sustained over the previous two trading sessions. The benchmark EU Allowance (EUA) contract for December 2025 closed at €73.18, posting a notable daily gain of 3.92%.
European carbon prices extended their decline on Monday, continuing the downward trend from the previous session. EUA Dec ’25 contracts ended the day at €70,42 nearly €4,5 below the three-month high recorded on Friday.