The European Commission last week published its first 2026 status table on free allocation to industry and heat production, showing that 72.4% of the allowances listed in the latest National Allocation Tables (NATs) had been transferred as of 10 September.

According to the document, 444.59 million EUAs were earmarked for free allocation in 2026, of which 321.70 million EUAs had already been transferred to operators, leaving around 122.89 million EUAs, or 27.6%, yet to be transferred.

Several large EU ETS markets had already completed or nearly completed their 2026 free allocation transfers. Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden were among the member states where virtually all allowances had been transferred to operators.

By contrast, the pace varied considerably across the bloc, with some member states still having substantial volumes outstanding. Romania was among those yet to begin the process, reporting no transfers of 2026 free allowances as of 10 September.

Operators commonly rely on allowances from the following year’s free allocation to help meet the previous year’s compliance obligations, effectively “borrowing” from the subsequent allocation cycle. When those allowances arrive late, operators that had expected to use them for compliance may instead need to purchase EUAs on the secondary market, potentially adding to compliance-related demand ahead of the surrender deadline.

A further Commission update is due on 25 September 2026 and is expected to show additional progress across member states. However, with a sizeable volume of allowances still outstanding as of 10 September, the free allocation process may not be fully completed ahead of the compliance deadline.