The softer tone that has recently emerged across the market persisted during Monday’s trading, with EUA prices moving lower for a second consecutive session. The latest decline pushed the settlement to its lowest level in nearly two weeks, highlighting the continued lack of buying conviction.

The European carbon market remained stuck in a relatively narrow trading range, with the EUA Dec’26 contract fluctuating between an intraday low of €81.19 and a high of €82.24. The contract eventually ended Monday’s session near the midpoint of the range at €81.58, marking its weakest close since 5 August, while still holding above the summer daily average of €80.52.

EUA Dec’26 Price Performance – Summer 2026

Turnover remained notably subdued, with just 13.9 million allowances changing hands during Monday’s session. Average daily volumes for August so far stand at around 15.4 million allowances, significantly below the 27.5 million daily average recorded in August last year.

The sharp year-on-year decline suggests that the current lack of trading activity cannot be attributed to the usual summer seasonality alone. Instead, subdued participation may reflect broader uncertainty surrounding the upcoming EU ETS review and, increasingly, the outlook for European economic growth.

“For now, the market sits somewhere between undecided and on holiday. Low turnover, moderate fund length, and carbon’s muted response to a sharp move higher in gas all point in the same direction: there is not yet a catalyst strong enough to force EUAs out of the range,” according to BBVA analysts.

Tuesday morning offered an early indication that macroeconomic data could provide such a catalyst. EUAs initially extended their losses, with the Dec’26 contract briefly falling below the €81 mark for the first time in seven trading sessions, before reversing direction following the release of Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator.

The ZEW indicator rose to 34.2 points in August, up from 26.3 in July and above market expectations, signalling a more optimistic assessment of Germany’s economic outlook among investors. The stronger reading provided some support to market sentiment and helped EUAs recover from their earlier weakness.

Looking ahead, attention will turn to Friday’s release of the August flash PMI data for Germany and the broader Eurozone, which should provide further insight into the health of the European economy. Following Tuesday’s reaction to the ZEW survey, the figures will be closely watched for signs that macroeconomic developments could provide the catalyst needed to push EUAs out of their recent comfort zone.