The latest Commitment of Traders (CoT) report from the ICE platform, released Wednesday morning, indicates that investment funds have continued to reduce their net long positions (the difference between long and short positions) for the ninth consecutive week.

According to market data available as of last Friday, net long positions declined by a further 13.4 million allowances, or 16% compared with the previous week, bringing the total down to 32.7 million allowances, the lowest level since late August.

The data also show that speculative traders reduced their long positions by 5.4 million allowances, bringing the total to 81.4 million allowances, while short positions remained relatively stable, increasing by just 0.8 million allowances to a total of 48.67 million allowances, the highest level since early May 2025.

Net long positions peaked in mid-January at around 126 million allowances and have now fallen to about one quarter of that level, pointing to a significant decline in investor confidence in further upside and indicating a more bearish outlook for EUA prices.

This view is also shared by the European Central Bank (ECB), which revised downward its forecast for carbon prices in the ETS for 2026–2028 in its March review. According to the ECB, EUA prices are expected to average €72.9 in 2026 (-11.9% compared to the December 2025 forecast), €73.4/t in 2027 (-13.8%), and €75.5/t in 2028 (-13.8%).