The European carbon market ended last week on a softer note, with EUA Dec’25 settling Friday at €77.55, down €0.29 on the day. Despite the modest retreat, carbon prices still advanced 2.4% over the week.

“The overall sentiment on the market has been bullish recently, as demand ahead of the compliance deadline remains high and speculative investors are also taking on new long positions,” Mind Energy said this morning. The upcoming Commitment of Traders report, due Wednesday, is expected to show a further increase in speculative traders’ net long positions, according to trading data.

Meanwhile, EUA prices decoupled from gas, with the TTF front-month contract closing the week 1% lower. Gas prices have remained relatively stable so far this month, supported by strong storage levels, normal seasonal temperatures, and ample supply, despite seasonal maintenance on Norway’s gas infrastructure.

Also on Friday, the EU unveiled a new package of sanctions on Russia that, if adopted, would end Russian LNG imports a year earlier—by the start of 2027. However, “news relating to the sanctions package being more aggressive on Russian LNG, albeit only slightly, had little impact on the market,” noted Auxilione.