The European carbon market rose for a third consecutive day on Friday, with the EUA Dec ’25 contract closing at €71.34, marking an impressive weekly gain of 2.07% as trade tensions showed signs of easing. Trading activity was subdued, with only 17.4 million allowances exchanged—the lowest volume since the U.S. Independence Day holiday on July 4.

The EUAs opened Monday morning in line with last week’s trend, continuing to rise. On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a trade deal, ending months of uncertainty between two partners that together account for nearly a third of global trade.

“We have a trade deal between the two largest economies in the world, and it’s a big deal. It’s a huge deal. It will bring stability. It will bring predictability,” said von der Leyen, adding that “it was the best we could get.” Under the agreement, most EU goods will face a 15% U.S. tariff—half the original rate.

As expected, the European carbon markets opened higher on Monday. The EUA Dec ’25 briefly touched €72.25—a level not seen in three weeks. However, the rally was short-lived, as prices soon pulled back in response to a decline in TTF gas prices.

The European gas market responded with relative calm, as strong supply from Norway offset the optimism generated by the US-EU trade deal. “The agreement removes the fear of a trade war but is generally not well received in the European media, as it is considered too pro-US,” Mind Energy noted in its Monday briefing, explaining the gas market’s muted reaction.