After weeks of anticipation and speculation, Donald Trump managed once again to surprise investors with “the worst case scenario for tariffs,” according to Mary Ann Bartels, executive at US wealth management firm Sanctuary Wealth. Concerns about the impact of US tariffs on the global economic outlook affected all markets following higher than anticipated taxes.

According to a note from JPMorgen, the risk of global recession has now risen from 40% to 60%. Fitch Ratings also warns that “US growth in 2025 is likely to be slower than the 1.7% that we had projected in March” adding that “growth prospects for the rest of the world have also deteriorated since the March projections.”

The European carbon market was also affected by the turmoil surrendering major markets around the world. In yesterday’s session, the EUAs continued its downtrend that started on Wednesday, in anticipation of Trump’s tariffs announcement. The price for carbon allowances extended losses on Thursday, settling at €66,06 posting a drop of 3,63%, its biggest daily decline in a month. 

The carbon market continues its slide after opening on Friday morning, with similar losses hitting European gas markets, as well. The EUAs Dec’25 traded briefly below €65 a level which is €19 below this year’s record high of 83,93 reached in late January.

Fears of a global recession could send prices of carbon allowances even lower. “The impact from major energy intensive industries to change their future plans could impact the amount of energy they need in the future. Companies were already publicly discussing potential shut downs and reductions in output in response to the tariff announcement,” warns Auxillione in a note this morning.