The price on the European carbon market could reach an average of €92 this year, according to the Norwegian consultancy firm Veyt. While this latest forecast is €3 lower than the previous one made in October by Veyt, it is more optimistic than projections by other analysts surveyed by Montel News in December.

According to that survey, which included responses from BloombergNEF, Energy Aspects, Pact Capital, Vattenfall and Veyt, EUAs were expected to average €78,86 in 2025. The lowest forecast was made by BloombergNEF at €70 while Veyt supplied the highest at €95.

The Oslo-based company now sees carbon prices to be lower in the first half of this year, “given the current high correlation between gas and carbon” with gas prices expected to drop “towards the end of the winter.” Other bearish factors considered by Veyt include “modest growth prospects – which would keep emissions low – the upcoming US Trump administration and RePowerEU volumes”, write Montel News. 

However, in the fourth quarter of this year, carbon allowances could reach €100, according to Veyt amid upcoming shortage in the carbon market starting from 2027, increasing  coverage of the shipping sector and new EU climate targets for 2040. 

Another quarterly survey, this time made by Reuters, is expected by the end of this month. In October, Reuters polled nine analysts, including Veyt, which forecast an average price of €76,88 for 2025 and €92,46 for 2026.