Recent estimates from S&P Global Commodity Insights revealed that emissions from stationary installations under the EU ETS fell to 1.123 billion mtCO2e last year. The number is 11% below emissions generated in 2022 and 17% lower than 2020. According to the company, the decline was the result of a “weak macroeconomic environment that led to constrained industrial activity and power demand destruction.”

Based on early estimates made by S&P, emissions from the power sector are expected to drop the most, compared to other sectors, with an estimated fall of 22% compared to the previous year. “Aviation is the only sector projected to see an increase in emissions for the year, while the chemical sector is seen falling by 7%” stated S&P.

The analysis confirms to some extent a previous report from Ember released last month analyzing the EU electricity transitions. Based on estimates made by Ember, emissions in the EU power sector saw a 19% decline in 2023 compared to the previous year and a 13% decline compared to emissions recorded during the pandemic.

S&P also predicted that EUA prices would average €54,50 in 2024 and rebound to an average of €82 in 2025. This latest forecast is more pessimistic considering that last month, the same analysts expected prices to average €63,90 this year.