The European carbon market remained largely stable during yesterday’s trading session, maintaining its recent neutral trend. Sentiment, however, turned more positive after market participants reacted to leaked draft proposals concerning the EU ETS benchmark revisions.

The EUA Dec’26 contract closed at €75.71, posting a sharp daily gain of 3.66% — the largest increase in six weeks. Trading activity also picked up significantly, with 23 million allowances exchanged during yesterday’s session, well above the two-week average of 17.3 million.

According to Argus, “preliminary benchmark values for calculating free allowance allocations under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) for 2026–2030 are largely unchanged from earlier internal figures.”

Analysts quoted by Carbon Pulse estimate that the latest set of values will increase the overall volume of free allowances in the EU ETS by just 4 million allowances per year, making it “unlikely to have a major impact on market prices.”

The new regulation will be published and opened for feedback for one month starting in early May, while the final version is expected to be adopted in the second half of June, “with free allowances to be available for issuance from the second half of July,” according to the European Commission.