After reaching a June 2023 high of €93.80 two weeks ago, EUA Dec’26 carbon prices reversed course, sliding toward €80 last Friday—a three-month low—and closing the week with an 8% drop, the steepest weekly decline in two years.

Weekly turnover remained extremely high compared with last year’s weekly average, though it was lower than the previous week. According to BBVA analysts, January volumes for EUA Dec’25 “surged to the highest monthly turnover since March 2020,” suggesting that market participants are actively adjusting positions in response to macroeconomic signals.

The downward move in the carbon market stood “in complete contrast to developments in the gas, coal, and power markets,” according to Mind Energy. The TTF front-month contract closed on Friday at €39.3/MWh, its highest level in seven months, supported by colder weather and reduced storage levels, which remain below the five-year average.

EUA Dec’26 prices fell below €80 early on Monday, reaching an intraday low last seen in late October. Prices later recovered as buyers stepped in, with the market trading within a €4 range during the first hour of the session. This reflects a recent pattern in which sharp downward moves are quickly met by opportunistic buying, bringing prices back toward their broader upward trajectory.

Also notable on Monday morning, the TTF front month fell by a sharp 12% as short-term US weather forecasts turned milder, easing concerns over LNG deliveries to Europe. The US now accounts for nearly one-third of Europe’s LNG imports, “making European prices highly sensitive to US supply conditions,” according to Trading Economics.