Alina TEODORESCU

Alina TEODORESCU

EU carbon market analyst

European Carbon Market Slips Below €90 in Early Monday Trading

Carbon Market Comes Under Pressure as Gas Prices and Equities Slide

19 January 2026

The European carbon market closed out last week firmly in positive territory, registering a 2.77% weekly gain—the strongest performance in two months. The benchmark eased modestly during Friday’s session, however, snapping an eight-session winning streak.

Conditions were a little bit different in the gas market, where the TTF front-month contract surged nearly 30% on the week, settling on Friday at its highest level since June. The rally was driven by supply-demand concerns, with prices supported by “forecasts for colder-than-usual weather towards the end of January,” according to ING analysts.

European carbon prices briefly slipped below €89 in early Monday trading, tracking weakness in both the gas market and equities. The TTF front-month contract fell by more than 8% after “morning updated forecasts indicated a slightly less pronounced cold spell in Central Western Europe for this and next week,” according to Mind Energy.

European equities also came under pressure, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down as much as 1.5% at one point. The sell-off followed an announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump imposing a 10% tariff on European countries, a move linked to renewed tensions over Washington’s push to acquire Greenland despite resistance from several nations. The administration warned that the tariff could be raised to 25% from June 1 if no agreement is reached.

“The key question now is whether this proves to be another TACO-style fade or the start of a more durable retracement,” BBVA analysts warned in a note sent this morning.

The acronym, short for “Trump Always Chickens Out,” refers to a strategy in which investors sell risk assets immediately after a tough announcement by Donald Trump, before buying the dip on expectations that the policy will ultimately be delayed, softened, or reversed.