According to ING’s commodities outlook, the European carbon market is expected to tighten in 2026 as supply declines— a development that should keep upward pressure on prices next year. This reinforces the broader analyst consensus that carbon prices are likely to continue rising into 2026.

After stabilising around €80/t in late 2025, prices are projected to rise gradually across 2026, peaking at €86/t in the fourth quarter before easing slightly to an annual average of €83/t, according to ING analysts.

Even so, ING’s projection sits marginally below the €85 forecast for 2026 identified in a consensus compiled by GMK Center, which draws on assessments from major research houses and institutions including BloombergNEF, ABN Amro, and ICIS.

“A large speculative long and growing pressure to balance competitiveness with decarbonisation targets are downside risks to this view,” ING explained, adding that record net long positions from speculators leave “some positioning risk in the market, particularly if there is any easing in the bloc’s climate ambitions.”