European carbon prices continued their upward trajectory into Friday’s session, extending a broadly positive week in which EUAs once again moved in the opposite direction to gas prices. The Dec’25 contract closed the month at €83.26, marking a 6% monthly gain — the strongest increase since January.

The upward momentum briefly carried into early Monday trading, with EUAs touching €83.37, their highest level since early February. However, the market softened later in the day, likely pressured by falling gas prices, and carbon ultimately ended the session down 0.74%.

On the gas market, the TTF front-month contract closed November with a 10.2% decline, despite lower storage levels and uncertainty surrounding the peace deal. Prices continued “their two-week long, uninterrupted decline” on Monday, according to Mind Energy.

“Recent models are pointing to warmer-than-expected temperatures in Europe, which could weigh on demand for gas,” analysts at ANZ Research said, adding that “traders seem confident that supplies will be plentiful and enable utilities to meet demand during the peak season.”

Analysts expect the divergence between EUAs and TTF to persist. A tight fundamental balance for EUAs contrasts with a bearish outlook for gas, a dynamic that is “likely to keep the two markets pulling in opposite directions next year,” according to Alessandro Vitelly.