While it remains difficult to predict the exact trajectory of carbon prices, there is broad consensus among analysts that they are likely to rise over the course of 2026. Another area of agreement is the set of factors expected to drive this increase.

According to Montel News, consultancy Redshaw Advisors said on Thursday that the EU’s benchmark carbon price is likely to surpass EUR 100/t next year as the EU ETS undergoes a “significant” tightening of its supply–demand balance.

However, Yan Qin, carbon analyst at ClearBlue Markets, struck a less optimistic tone in an article published this morning. She noted that the structural tightness in the EU carbon market is more likely to support EU ETS prices in the range of €80–€90/t in 2026.

A major risk to the bullish outlook is the potential for political intervention. Yan Qin pointed out that although EU environment ministers recently adopted a legally binding 2040 target to reduce net greenhouse-gas emissions by 90% from 1990 levels, they also agreed to delay the launch of the new EU ETS 2.

The decision was viewed as a significant concession after several member states warned that the new mechanism would place a disproportionate burden on lower-income households, potentially fuelling public resistance to climate policies.

Another decision that signals a possible shift in political rhetoric—and could affect carbon prices in the near future—was highlighted by BBVA analysts in a recent report. “The European Commission’s recent move to shield EU steel producers from global overcapacity highlights an ongoing recalibration of industrial policy, keeping traders alert to headline risk and regulatory signalling as key near-term catalysts.”