On the European carbon market, the week ended with a marginal gain of 0.28%, indicating a continued lack of clear directional momentum. Nevertheless, despite this short-term stability, October closed 3.72% higher, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase in EUA prices.

Trading activity also picked up during October, rising by 2.31% compared to September — a month typically characterized by higher volumes ahead of the compliance deadline. With a total of 612 million allowances changing hands, October recorded the highest trading volume since April, indicating that speculative traders have become more active again.

Carbon prices began the week on a firm note, briefly reaching €79.82 on Monday — their highest level in two weeks. The upward move was largely supported by a rebound in gas prices, which recovered after hitting an 18-month low on Friday.

Weather forecasts last week pointed to mild conditions across Europe, accompanied by above-average wind output for early November. However, the outlook shifted over the weekend, with MetDesk reporting that temperatures had turned colder across much of the continent.

According to Reuters, “there will be frequent cold spells in the next two months, and the likelihood of a three-month cold period is higher than in previous years.” Analysts at Energy Aspects added that “prolonged periods of low wind speeds would increase power sector demand and accelerate withdrawals from gas storage at the start of winter.”