Yesterday, the European carbon market experienced a strong rebound, with the EUA Dec’25 contract climbing 3.44% to settle at €73.08—the highest closing level since June 24. Trading activity also saw a notable increase, with 32 million allowances exchanged, a volume not seen in the past five weeks.

EUAs have shown a bullish response to rising prices across energy-related markets. The TTF front-month contract rebounded from last week’s three-month low, gaining 3.66% on the day, while the Brent crude front-month contract also advanced by 3.40%, reaching its highest settlement in over a month.

“Donald Trump’s threats of new sanctions and tariffs on Russia in case the country does not end the war in Ukraine anytime soon was bullishly received by the markets yesterday,” writes Mind Energy this morning.

Analysts from ANZ Bank quoted by the Wall Street Journal fear that “tighter global supply would risk ramping up competition for LNG cargoes on the international market,” at a time when Europe is rushing to fill its gas storage sites for next winter.

Besides geopolitical risks, adjustments made to the auction volumes published by the EEX also had a noteworthy impact on the carbon price yesterday. “Although the MSR-triggered auction adjustments are already mostly priced in, they may still lead to some short-lived price corrections in the market,” according to Agnieszka Wasylewicz, senior analyst at LSEG, quoted by Montel News.