The week opened with falling prices on the European carbon market, as EUAs initially reacted to President Trump’s announcement of new 30% tariffs on EU imports set to take effect next month. However, the market quickly recovered early losses, likely driven by increased compliance demand, before closing the day at €70.42, down just €0.13 from Friday.

The settlement price for EUAs has remained confined to a narrow €70–71 range over the past five sessions, despite concerns over President Trump’s new tariffs and their potential impact on European industry—suggesting the market has become increasingly immune to such headlines.

Three months ago, following Trump’s Liberation Day announcement, the EUA market came under intense bearish pressure, recording a sharp 7.24% weekly decline. This time around, however, “the markets overall seem confident that the EU and the US will ultimately reach an agreement,” as stated by Mind Energy.

Speaking from the Oval Office on Monday, President Trump also signaled openness to dialogue, stating he is willing to engage with trade partners. “They would like to do a different kind of a deal, and we’re always open to talk—including to Europe,” said Trump, adding, “They’re coming over. They’d like to talk.”

The recent narrow trading range for EUAs may also indicate that the market is simply “gliding into the holiday season,” as noted by BBVA analysts. Average daily trading volume in July has dropped to around 20 million allowances—a 33% decline compared to June.