According to a poll released Wednesday by Montel News, the EUA December 2025 contract is now expected to average around €77 this year. This marks a significant rise from the 2024 average of €66.5, as reported by Veyt.

“We expect to see some demand in Q3 due to the compliance deadline, but trade tensions will likely continue to weigh on prices through the end of the year,” said Egis Breshani, EU carbon market analyst at ClearBlue Markets, adding that “power emissions are 6% up year to date, while industrial gas demand is 3% down.”

Many analysts have recently lowered their average price forecasts for EUAs amid high levels of policy uncertainty. In April, consultancy firm Veyt slashed its estimate for 2025 from €92 to €80, assuming “for the near term an ongoing turbulent macro-economic environment.”

Also in April, analysts from LSEG revised down their carbon price forecast for EUA Dec’25 to €71, citing “global market turbulence triggered by economic uncertainty and a sharp sell-off following new US tariffs,” as reported by QC Intelligence.

So far in 2025, carbon prices have already experienced increased volatility. However, analysts quoted by Carbon Pulse warn that “EUA prices are more likely to hit €80 than €60 again this year because too many buyers are eager to buy on the dip.”