The European carbon market experienced on Thursday its third consecutive day of decline, closing at €67,63, its lowest in two weeks. It is also worth mentioning that EUAs were locked in a tight trading range of just €1,38 (€67.53-€68,91) most likely due to public holidays in the US.

Despite recent losses, some analysts believe that carbon price should follow its seasonal upward trend in December amid auction pause and winter weather conditions. The last EEX auction will be held on 16 December ahead of the holidays and they will resume on 7 January 2025

According to Ben Lee, analyst at Energy Aspects , quoted by Montel, the recent declines came in part as a reactionl to prices being “supported in recent weeks by algorithmic or speculative trading.” He also added that “there shouldn’t be a huge drop in prices in the short term.”

The market also responded to “foreacts of milder and windier weather  for Northern and Central Europe following a long period with high pressure weather and below-average temperatures” writes Energi Danmark in a note this morning. Besides weather conditions, another risk factor for gas markets is the supply uncertainties. 

“The expiration of a transit deal between Russia and Ukraine next month and faster-than-usual storage withdrawals across Europe are expected to support prices going forward”, predicts the Wall Street Journals. The withdrawals from the European gas storage inventories started earlier than last year and are “at their highest level for any November going back to 2011” according to Richard Meyer, vice-president within the American Gas Association (AGA).