Ahead of this week’s UN climate conference COP29, the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) published its climate bulletin, reporting on the changes observed in air and sea temperatures.

According to C3S, “it is now virtually certain that the year 2024 will be the warmest” as the average global temperatures from January to October had been so high. In order to avoid reaching this critical climate milestone, for the remaining two months, the average temperature anomaly “would have to  decrease by an unprecedented amount, nearly reaching zero.” This is highly unlikely considering that for 15 out of the last 16 months, the average temperatures have surpassed the 1,50C limit outlined in the Paris Agreement.

As a result, for the year as a whole, average temperatures are expected to surpass this symbolic mark and to be around 1,65ºC above the pre-industrual levels (compared to 1.48ºC in 2023). This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming Climate Change Conference, COP29” according to Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus.

Climate scientists were not surprised by the findings which came shortly after Donald Trump winning the US election and just ahead of COP29. “This latest record sends another stark warning to governments at COP29 of the urgent need for action to limit any further warming,” said Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, quoted by BBC

According to Bill McGuire, a professor emeritus of Geophysical & Climate Hazards at University College London, the report is the “the bleakest news possible, especially with climate denier US President in office for the next 4 years,” adding that he “doesn’t expect any serious action at COP29.”