Based on a survey conducted by Montel News among carbon market analysts, verified emissions from the roughly 10,000 stationary installations covered by the EU ETS “likely tumbled by 14% in 2023”, compared to the previous year.

According to 11 observers, including LSEG, Morgan Stanley, or ICIS, power plants and factories emitted on average 1,126 million tonnes of CO2e. In relative terms, the decline compared to 2022 ranges between 11% and 17%.

The sharpest drop was recorded by the power and heat sector with a massive 20% plunge to 577 million tonnes of CO2e. Based on the methodology used by ICIS, power emissions fell even more by around 25% to just 506 million tonnes of CO2e.

Verified emissions from the industry sector also fell but more modestly standing at 548 million tones on average, 7% below the previous year’s level. According to analysts quoted by Montel News, roughly half this decline was attributed to steel, chemicals, and cement.

Starting this year, the deadline for compliance was pushed from 30 April to 30 September while handing out free allowances was delayed from 28 February to 30 June. Stationary installations and aviation are still required to submit verified emissions reports by the end of March, and the Commission must publish preliminary data on verified emissions on 1 April. However, due to the Easter holiday, the executive will release verified emissions data on 3 April instead.