A recent study published last week by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) revealed that gas demand in the EU is expected to drop 8% in 2023 compared to levels recorded in 2022.

According to data collected from January to November, gas demand from the power sector was down 19.1% compared to the same period last year. The massive decline was caused by a combination of “weak macroeconomic outlook; a recovery in French nuclear output; and higher hydro and other renewables generation.”

Industrial demand is also weak, but the decline is more moderate, dropping just 5% so far this year. Furthermore, it is experiencing a fragile recovery since this summer, increasing in November by almost 12% compared to the same period last year. 

“The industrial sector’s apparent recovery since this summer does suggest that some of the losses seen in 2022 may not be structural” according to the authors. Still, while gas use in this sector shows signs of recovery, demand in the power sector could remain weak mainly due to healthier hydro capacity and positive outlook for nuclear availability. 

According to  latest data from EDF France,  nuclear output last month was up 26,4% compared to previous November while cumulative annual output was by 15% “thanks to the optimisation and a good management of the stress corrosion works.”