An international team of more than 120 scientists from 90 institutions has been publishing each year since 2006 an update on the global carbon cycle called The Global Carbon Budget.

According to the document, preliminary data for 2023 revealed that the world’s emissions are set to exceed 40 billion tons, a 1,1% increase relative to the 2022 level and up by 1,5% compared to pre-pandemic levels.

The researchers also estimate that while the emissions are rising overall, they are falling in some regions, mainly in the EU (-7,4%) and the US (-3%). However, “regional trends vary dramatically” with India (+8,2%) and China (+4%) leading the way, having the highest contribution. Furthermore, emissions in India from fossil fuels are now above the level in the EU.

“The Chinese rise was caused by its economy reopening after COVID-19 lockdowns, while India’s was a result of power demand growing faster than the country’s renewable energy capacity, leaving fossil fuels to make up the shortfall,” according to Reuters. 

The overall upward trajectory in emissions “pulls the world further away from preventing global warming exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times.” According to the researchers, at the current level, there is a 50% chance for global warming to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius before 2030.