Reuters periodically publishes a survey of analysts’ forecasts for the European Union’s carbon market, providing a snapshot of market expectations for EU ETS allowance prices. The latest poll, published on Friday, reflects analysts’ updated outlook following recent policy developments.

The latest Reuters survey  was conducted after the European Commission unveiled its proposed reform of the EU ETS, providing greater clarity on policy changes that had remained uncertain when the April poll was conducted. While the earlier survey relied largely on assumptions about the direction of the reform, the latest forecasts are based on the Commission’s concrete proposals, allowing analysts to reassess the market outlook with greater confidence.

Having sharply reduced their price forecasts in April, citing “uncertainty over proposed policy changes and future supply levels,” analysts made further downward revisions in the latest Reuters survey, although the cuts were considerably smaller.

The consensus forecast for EU allowances in 2026 was revised down from €80.61 per metric ton in the April survey to €79.97 in the latest poll. Expectations for 2027 were also lowered, with analysts now projecting an average price of €89.13 per metric ton, compared with the previous forecast of €93.29.

Analysts attributed the downward revision in price expectations primarily to the European Commission’s proposed changes to the EU ETS. According to Rystad analyst Noemi Zuercher, the planned reduction in the annual reduction factor of the emissions cap would slow the tightening of allowance supply, weighing on future carbon prices.

In contrast, analysts raised their 2028 price forecast by 2% to €95.37 per metric ton, reflecting expectations that allowances under the proposed Investment Booster Fund, financed through the auction of 400 million EU ETS allowances, will enter the market more gradually than previously expected.