For a third straight day, the European carbon market traded lower, despite the increases on the gas markets. On Tuesday, the EUAs Dec’24 traded again below the €70 mark before closing at €70,63 with a minor daily decline of €0,17. 

The carbon price “has lingered around one-month lows while remaining correlated with the movements on the fuel markets”, wrote trader Energi Danmark this morning adding that “the uncertainty following the European Parliament election has also been in focus lately ”

The carbon market has tumbled lately as investors grow more concerned following the outcome of the European elections held last week. More seats for parties that deny climate change in the future Parliament is a sign that environmental legislation could slip down the EU policy agenda.

In France, the National Rally, which is Marine Le Pen’s party, won 31% of French votes forcing President Macron to call for a snap election this summer. According to Greenpeace quoted by Montel News, France’s far-right would be “the worst choice for the environment”, vowing to “ensure no backtracking on the EU Green Deal.” 

“Whoever picks up the environment portfolio in the next Commission, will have a hard time keeping up the ambition of the last five years”, warns the Centre for European Reform (CER) in a report analyzing how the far-right party will influence the EU’s agenda over the next legislature. 

Meanwhile, another outage from Norway pushed gas prices higher with TTF front month trading above €35 for the first time in more than a week. Unplanned works at the Visund gas field reduced flows from Norway to Europe by 15,4 mcm/day and were expected to last at least a week.

Yet again, the outage proved how vulnerable the European gas market is to Norway’s supply issue. “The market retains a nervous undertone and will react to any negative news it seems” warned Auxilione analysts in a note this morning.