Alina TEODORESCU

Alina TEODORESCU

EU carbon market analyst

Speculative Traders’ Bets on Rising Carbon Prices Fall to a Ten-Week Low

Trading Data Highlight a Shift Toward More Bearish Market Expectations

6 August 2026

The latest Commitment of Traders (CoT) report from the ICE platform, released on Wednesday morning, shows that investment funds resumed reducing their net long positions—the difference between long and short positions—after a brief pause the previous week.

According to market data available as of last Friday, net long positions declined by 2.6 million allowances from the previous week, bringing the total to 42.1 million allowances, the lowest level since late May.

The data also show that speculative traders reduced their long positions by 2.6 million allowances to 63.3 million allowances, while short positions increased by 3.4 million allowances to 21.2 million allowances.

Net long positions peaked at around 126 million allowances in mid-January and have since declined to 42.1 million allowances—roughly one-third of their peak—reflecting a marked deterioration in investor confidence in further upside and a more bearish outlook for EUA prices than at the start of the year.

Although ICE’s Commitment of Traders report reflects investors’ positioning at the time the data are collected, it also serves as an important indicator of broader investor sentiment and expectations for the EUA market. In this context, the latest report was broadly consistent with subsequent market developments, with Dec-26 EUA prices falling by 2.56% week-on-week.