On Friday, the market saw modest gains, with EUAs closing at €75.98. Despite this uptick, prices ended the week 2% lower, marking the steepest weekly drop since early August. Trading activity also eased, with weekly turnover in Dec’25 contracts sliding from 137 million allowances to 120 million, the lowest level this month.

In addition, three of the four auctions held last week cleared below prevailing secondary market prices, pointing to subdued demand and cautious bidding.

The downward trend carried into early Monday trading, with Dec’25 EUAs briefly dipping to €75.06 — their lowest level in more than three weeks. “The recent development does however show that there is some volatility on the market and that fluctuations and sudden price jumps can happen again if the circumstances are right,” wrote Mind Energy this morning.

That assessment quickly played out, as EUA prices rebounded sharply following a strong auction that cleared above the secondary market. Looking ahead, reduced auction supply this week, with no sale scheduled on Friday due to a public holiday in Germany,  may provide further support.

The correlation between EUA and gas prices has weakened, moving away from the previously strong relationship. However, after the compliance deadline and September option expiry on both markets, the correlation could strengthen once again as we approach the winter season.