The European carbon market extended its decline on Monday, marking the fourth consecutive session of losses. The EUA December 2025 contract ended the day at €69.83, its lowest close of the month so far.

Equally noteworthy was the exceptionally narrow trading range of just €0.83 – the tightest since March 2021 – as market participants adopted a “wait-and-see” stance amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties.

According to carbon analyst Alessandro Vitelli, there is a “growing consensus among analysts that the market is beginning to show signs of bearish potential.” This downward sentiment is also evident across financial and energy-related markets amid ongoing concerns over tariffs.

Recent media headlines indicate that no trade deal is currently in sight, with the deadline fast approaching. According to Reuters, citing EU diplomats, “a growing number of European Union member states, including Germany, are considering using wide-ranging ‘anti-coercion’ measures targeting U.S. services if the EU cannot reach a trade deal with U.S. President Donald Trump.”

The downward momentum persisted into early Tuesday, with EUAs sliding well below the €70 mark. The drop is largely attributed to weakness in equity markets, while gas prices showed a modest rebound after three straight sessions of declines.