Ten analysts surveyed by Reuters have slightly lowered their price forecast for the European carbon market in the third quarter of this year. EUAs are now expected to average €73.54, down from €76.10 projected in April.

Survey respondents highlighted several key risk factors, including US-EU tariff risks and political volatility. “EU carbon prices have struggled through 2025 due to geopolitical uncertainty and trade turmoil, which have limited upside potential,” said Veyt, quoted by Reuters.

Source: Reuters, chart by EMBA Power

Forecasts for the next two years have also been revised slightly downward. EUAs are now projected to average €91.08 in 2026, down from €91.37, while the estimate for 2027 has been trimmed to €108.70, compared to €109.62 previously.

However, the average forecast for this year has seen a modest upward revision, rising from €74.89 in April to €75.15. For comparison, the average price of EUAs stood at €85 in 2023, before falling to around €66 in 2024.