With compliance deadlines just around the corner, Energy Aspects, as cited by Montel News, forecasts a 10% rise in carbon prices during the third quarter of this year, with average levels expected to hover around €75 per tonne.

However, analysts believe that the main driver behind rising carbon prices may not be the late compliance purchases from the industrial and power sectors, but rather the influence of speculative trading activity.

In a separate report, Energy Aspects forecasts an increase of nearly 4 GW in gas-fired power generation across Western Europe in August alone. This rise is attributed to a combination of higher cooling demand, reduced hydro output, and restrictions on nuclear generation due to cooling limitations—factors expected to “pose substantial upside risk to Europe’s power and gas prices,” while also adding upward pressure on carbon prices.

A similar outlook was shared by analysts at Commodity Insights, who project an average carbon price of €75 for the third quarter, rising to €85 in the fourth quarter. “The fundamental drivers of tightening supply and compliance demand point to a sustained upward trajectory for the remainder of 2025, even though short-term volatility may arise from broader economic conditions and fluctuations in energy markets.”