According to data provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and compiled by Bloomberg, temperatures from now up to March “are expected to stay above seasonal norms”.

However, considering that the previous two winters saw milder than usual weather in large parts of Europe, this winter temperatures “are set to remain mostly below levels seen in the last two years”, pushing heating demand “the highest level since the start of the war in Ukraine.” 

On the other hand, meteorologists from Maxar Technologies Inc. expect “ mostly mild conditions for northern and central Europe, with any colder temperatures focused primarily on the south, like Italy and the Balkans.”

Colder than usual weather in the first two weeks in November has already accelerated gas storage withdrawals according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.  The latest numbers available for 25 November show that the EU’s gas storage facilities are currently at 87,39% full (Romania – 88,68%) well below 97,56%, which is the level recorded last year during the same period. (Romania  – 99,49%).

Also, besides weather, geopolitical uncertainties could also add to existing stresses in the gas market, particularly Russia’s deal to transit gas through Ukraine. The contract expires at the end of the year, with close sources quoted by Reuters, saying that Gazprom “is making the assumption no more gas will flow to Europe via Ukraine after the last day of the year in its internal planning for 2025.”