The European carbon market started the week on a positive note, hitting an intra-day high of €68,80, a level last seen in early September. However, the sentiment changed later in the day with EUAs closing at €67,57 with a daily loss of €0,45. The market continues the downward trend Tuesday morning, with prices dropping briefly below €66.

“As we approach December, we will likely start to see some rather sharp fluctuations as traders are starting to close their books for the year, something which is rather common in the last weeks of the year,” said energy trading group Energi Danmark in a note this morning.

Meanwhile, gas prices responded bullish to the cooler weather forecasts, weak wind conditions and  faster stockpile withdrawals, with TTF front month trading briefly at €44,10/MWh, the highest level since early December last year. “This follows Hurricane Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico which has halted plenty of oil and gas production in the area in recent days”, noted Auxilione.

Furthermore, “the risk of gas disruption rises, making a case for bullish price momentum this week,” warned  Christoph Halser, gas analyst with Rystad, quoted by Montel News. Halser is referring to the military action near Sudza, an important processing point in Ukraine, the only transit hub still used to export Russian gas. 

In the short term on the carbon market, the focus should remain on weather forecasts which play an increasing role as we approach the winter heating season. Also, we expect the European carbon market to react negatively as soon as President elect Donald Trump decides once more to pull the US from the Paris Agreement. 

According to the New York Times, Trump’s transition team “has prepared executive orders and proclamations on withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement” as he promised during his campaign. 

Pe termen scurt, focusul pietei de carbon ar trebui sa ramana pe prognoza meteo care va avea un rol deciziv pe masura ce ne apropiem de sezonul rece. De asemenea, ne asteptam ca piata europeana de carbon sa reactioneze negativ de indata ce presedintele ales Donald Trump va decide din nou sa retreaga SUA din Acordul de la Paris.

Potrivit New York Times, echipa de tranzitie a lui Trump “a pregatit decizile executive si declaratiile privind retraderea din acordul climatic de la Paris” dupa cum a acesta a promis in timpul campaniei electoral.