Despite mild temperatures, rising renewables and falling demand, gas prices managed to close three consecutive days with gains amid “signs of falling supply from Norway during the coming weeks offsetting the bearish signals,” as stated by trader Energi Danmark.

Norway’s gas system operator Gassco announced that production at Troll field, one of the biggest gas fields in the North Sea, providing around 10% of Europe’s gas supplies, would cease next Tuesday for two days. 

Meanwhile, Kollsness, a gas processing plant, would also reduce supply on the same days. In total, outages planned for next week would cut the country’s gas availability by 177 mcm/day. 

Transparency data published by Gassco shows that total export nomination on Friday stood at 320 mcm/day, below the typical levels of around 340 mcm/day when operating at full capacity. 

Source: Gassco, chart by EMBA Power

“Planned maintenance scheduled next week for Norway’s Troll field and Kollsnes gas processing plant was keeping market participants on edge”, according to an analyst quoted by Montel News. Any extension of planned maintenance would support gas and carbon prices even more.

The way Norway handles maintenance works has become the new Achilles heel for Europe. Last summer, the extension of maintenance work at some of the biggest facilities in the country was a key driver for the European gas market and the TTF front month had systematically reacted to any announcement coming from Gassco.

Therefore, the price of gas has become more exposed to the maintenance schedules across Norway as the country’s giant Equinor “has quietly picked up the crown that once belonged to Russia’s Gazprom. Norway now supplies 30% of the bloc’s gas; Gazprom provided about 35% of all Europe’s gas before the war,” noted Bloomberg.