Nine analysts surveyed by Reuters have lowered by 11,3% their European carbon market price forecast for 2024. EUAs are expected to average €74,11 this year, compared to €83,55 predicted last October. The most optimistic prediction for 2024 was made in July 2022 when a Reuters survey of eight analysts estimated an average price for EUAs at €101,95. 

The analysts surveyed by Reuters in January also lowered their forecast for the first quarter of this year by a massive 13% from €83,35 to €72,61. A downward revision of 6,3% was also made for 2025 from €88,95 to €83,31.

 Source: Reuters, 2023-2024

“We don’t see much in the way of price upside this year. Fundamentals are set to be unsupportive and investors are likely to hold net short positions again, keeping downward pressure on prices,” said Energy Aspects analyst Ben Lee quoted by Reuters.

According to the latest Commitment of Traders report, speculative investors have continued to increase their bets on falling prices with net short positions rising from 28,8 million allowances to 33,7 million allowances last week. 

There is also another factor in favor of the pessimistic estimates for this year: the change in compliance calendar. “Companies will this year have to surrender allowances by Sept. 30 instead of April 30 as in previous years, allowing them more time to compile data and purchase allowances”, wrote Reuters.