According to the media reports, the European Commission would recommend reducing emissions by 90% by 2040 compared to levels recorded in 1990. The European Union has already committed to reducing emissions by at least 55% by 2030 and aims to be climate-neutral by 2050.

The new EU climate target for 2040 is expected to be announced on 6 February and is in line with the recommendation made by the EU’s official climate science advisers. Last June, the advisers concluded that the “EU must strive for a net emissions reduction of 90-95% by 2040. These reductions are essential for mitigating climate risks and achieving a sustainable future.”

The new climate target needs to be negotiated and approved by the European Parliament and the 27 EU leaders to pass it into law, a legal procedure that could take up to two years. However, while several countries have offered support for the 90% target, others have yet to adopt a position.

“EU countries known for not being climate champions, like Italy and Malta, have yet to signal their preferences”, wrote Eurativ following a meeting of EU’s 27 environment ministers gathered in Brussels last week. Also, according to Euractiv, “Hungary is skeptical, and France and Germany have yet to take a stance”.

However, the media also reports a massive shift in climate policy from the new Polish government led by Donald Tusk, former president of the European Council. According to an official quoted by Politico, “the rest of Europe can count on Poland to step up our efforts on this.”

Analysts predict a bullish long-term picture for carbon prices as governments focus on climate goals for both 2030 and 2040. According to a report published by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSGE) last October, “a 90% target for 2040 would send EU carbon prices rising above €400 by 2040”.