After an unusually warm autumn, the weather forecast suggests a significant change for all of Europe. Temperatures are expected to drop well below seasonal average starting this weekend due to a cold outbreak from the Arctic region. 

According to Severe Weather Europe, “around 8-12 °C colder than normal temperatures will spread across eastern and central Europe on Saturday.”  What is even worse is that meteorologists agree that cold snap “will maintain and even intensify across central Europe by mid-next week.”

Longer forecasts also indicate colder than normal temperatures until at least December 6. As most of Europe is about to face its first major cold snap, a question arises at this point: how well prepared is it for the next winter?

Data from Gas Infrastructure Europe data shows that as of 22 November, storage facilities were filled to 98,40% of capacity. While inventories were down from 99,40% recorded at the start of the month, they remained well above the 94,40% the level recorded a year ago and well above the 89%, the average for the previous ten years.

Furthermore, daily gas deliveries from Norway, currently Europe’s main natural gas supplier, stood on Wednesday at 359,1 mcm/day, the highest since at least October 2020.

While record high inventories as well as strong gas deliveries from Norway are giving enough confidence that Europe would get through this winter, “substantial increases in demand may send prices soaring” warned Bloomberg referring to gas prices in an article published on Tuesday.

Trading activity on Wednesday proved that Bloomberg’s prediction was right. Gas prices gained almost 5% amid the cold weather forecast, adding bullish pressure on carbon prices as well. The EUAs reversed early losses to post a €1,4 gain, the second biggest daily jump in six weeks.