Analysts surveyed by Reuters have lowered by 10% their European carbon market price forecast for 2024. EUAs are expected to average €83,55 next year, compared to €92,68 estimated in July.

For the remainder of this year, seven analysts polled by Reuters estimate that carbon allowances could average €82,45, down by 0,7%. The forecast was trimmed by 11,3% for 2025, from €100,28 in July to €88,95.

The downward estimate revision for carbon prices was based “on expectations of lower demand from the power sector as generation from renewable sources such as wind and solar grow and amid a weak outlook for European industry”, writes Reuters.

In its winter outlook for energy markets, ICIS expects carbon prices to “continue trading within a narrow EUR 80-85/t range over the coming months”, pointing to lower emissions from both industry and power sectors The estimate made by ICIS for this year is in line with the short term forecast published by Reuters.